Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 9

January 4, 200414 counties in New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 4, 2004, 8:41 PM EST for 14 counties in New York. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 4, 2004, 8:41 PM EST (01:41 UTC)
Expired: Jan 4, 2004, 11:45 PM EST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 913 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -109 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

785 
ACUS11 KWNS 050142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050141 
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-050445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK MOHAWK VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 050141Z - 050445Z

SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS NY INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 02Z AND
08Z.

ALB EVENING RAOB SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA...ONCE THE LAYER BETWEEN THE SFC-850 MB BECOMES
SATURATED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS NEWD INTO ERN NY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL GO INTO LIFTING...850MB LOW
IN EAST CENTRAL IL IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD INTO NRN OH BY 06Z.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MB LIFTING NWD
AND RAISING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS LAYER.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SNOW CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET BY 06Z. PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND .10 INCH PER HOUR HAVE
BEEN COMMON WITH THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN NWRN PA/NERN OH AND
SIMILAR AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WARM
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THE SRN END  OF
THE AREA...WITH SLEET FROM NEAR BGM TO PSF WHERE THE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DEEPER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR OCCURRING ALONG
AND NORTH OF A BGM TO ALB LINE.

..IMY.. 01/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

42017337 41717472 42177594 43127539 43367408 43187335
42557333

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.