Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 87

February 5, 20044 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 5, 2004, 12:52 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 5, 2004, 12:52 PM CST (18:52 UTC)
Expired: Feb 5, 2004, 6:45 PM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 62 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Scott County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Mercer County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Doniphan County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 322 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

656 
ACUS11 KWNS 051852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051852 
ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN IA AND FAR NWRN IL

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 051852Z - 060045Z

HEAVY SNOW THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE KC METRO AREA/NWRN MO
AND SERN NEB WILL END IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING NEWD INTO
FAR NCENTRAL/NERN MO...SRN/ERN IA AND EVENTUALLY FAR NWRN IL OVER
THE NEXT 2-6 HOURS. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY ALONG AND 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM LAMONI TO
DVN BETWEEN 05/20Z AND 06/02Z.

LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER ECENTRAL
KS. STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL DRYING OBSERVED WILL FURTHER SHARPEN THE
MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND SUPPORT CONTINUED STRONG MESOSCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO ECENTRAL IA BY
06/00Z. THEREFORE...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A CONTINUED NEWD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM THE KC METRO
AREA INTO FAR NCENTRAL MO/SCENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO ECENTRAL IA/NWRN IL. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM
LAMONI TO DVN AND SHOULD AID IN A CONCENTRATED AREA OF 1 INCH/HR
SNOWFALL RATES FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD.

..CROSBIE.. 02/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39409439 39909549 41729390 42799051 41619016 40419166

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.