Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 85
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 5, 2004, 9:52 AM CST for Choctaw County, Washington County, Alabama; 17 parishes in Louisiana; 22 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 5, 2004, 9:52 AM CST (15:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 5, 2004, 11:45 AM CST
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties
Choctaw County, AL, Washington County, AL, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, Clarke County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 772 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 446 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 338 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 542 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 7.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
638 ACUS11 KWNS 051553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051552 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-051745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN/CNTRL MS....WRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 5... VALID 051552Z - 051745Z SLOW MOVING AND INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS SRN MS AND SERN LA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN LA/SERN MS...AND PERHAPS WRN AL PRIOR TO 18Z/NOON CST. FRONT WAS ALIGNED WITHIN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM SE OF LCH TO NEAR JAN AT 15Z. SEVERAL SMALL SCALE FRONTAL WAVES ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH ONE TO THE NE OF LCH AND ANOTHER NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH APEX NORTH OF JAN. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF FORCING WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENTLY FORCED SLAB ASCENT...WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED INVERSION...AND STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE WIND AND ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY GREATEST FROM EAST-CNTRL MS SWD ACROSS SERN LA. IN ADDITION...ALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE DEEP SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW...AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...SUGGEST THAT TRAINING CONVECTION AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS LA AND MS THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAINFALL RATES IN SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 02/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29519094 29719231 31369048 32458895 32348795 31098802 30258852
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 11:35 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Dallas, Greene and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Feb 5, 1:11 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, Clarke, Greene, Hale, Marengo, Perry and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 5, 3:22 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, Marengo, Sumter | 113 min |
| Feb 5, 4:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Dallas, Greene and 6 more | 32 min |
| Feb 5, 4:55 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bibb, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Dallas, Greene and 10 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 4, 11:37 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Evangeline and 10 more | 83 min |
| Feb 5, 1:16 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beauregard, Bienville, De Soto, Grant, Jackson, Lincoln and 6 more | 119 min |
| Feb 5, 5:08 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Calcasieu and 27 more | 3 hr |
| Feb 5, 5:40 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 33 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 5, 7:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Evangeline and 11 more | 115 min |
| Feb 5, 8:02 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Evangeline and 11 more | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.