Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 830
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2004, 8:18 PM EDT for 19 counties in New York; 21 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2004, 8:18 PM EDT (00:18 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2004, 10:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties
Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1116 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -27 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 993 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 216 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 238 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.1
- Supercell composite
- 3.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
200 ACUS11 KWNS 230018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230018 NYZ000-PAZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 252... VALID 230018Z - 230215Z SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 252 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS EAST FROM SWRN ONTARIO. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS PA IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND PARTS OF THE WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE SHOWING STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AT 40-45KT INTO PARTS OF WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL INFLOW/ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT RUNNING GENERALLY ALONG THE NY THRUWAY/I90 WILL LIKELY AT LEAST MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. BUF RAOB INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION/ORGANIZATION. THUS TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND HAZARD PERSISTS ACROSS THE NY PORTIONS OF THE WATCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42258049 43447547 41727550 40538043
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 10:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison and 9 more | 4 hr |
| May 23, 12:04 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison and 9 more | 56 min |
| May 23, 3:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 23, 4:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bronx, Broome, Chemung, Delaware, Dutchess, Kings and 14 more | 5 hr |
| May 23, 6:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Bronx, Broome, Chemung, Delaware, Dutchess and 16 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.