Mesoscale Discussion 72

Issued

Feb 3, 2004, 7:50 PM EST (00:50 UTC)

Expired

Feb 4, 2004, 1:45 AM EST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

050 
ACUS11 KWNS 040050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040050 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-040645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST TUE FEB 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 040050Z - 040645Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEWD FROM CENTRAL/SWRN NY...MA NWD INTO MUCH OF VT/NH AND
WRN ME THROUGH 04/07Z. ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW LINE
FROM FAR SRN NH/NRN MA INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF WRN ME...A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF
HEAVY SNOW.  THE LONGEST DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR
OVER NRN VT/NH AND NWRN ME...WHERE 3-6 HOURS OF 1 INCH OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY.

RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CONSEQUENTLY AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET...50 TO 70 KTS PER REGIONAL VWP/S...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
STRONG WAA FROM SRN INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHERE STRONG MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS COINCIDENT WITH THE
MAX LOW LEVEL WAA...FROM NRN NY EWD ACROSS NRN VT/NH INTO NWRN
ME...THE LONGEST DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
04/06Z. ALTHOUGH HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
OVER SRN NH/VT AND SWRN ME...MOST OF THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION
DUE TO INTENSE WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE USED FOR LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AS EVIDENT BY THE VERY DRY 04/00Z GYX SOUNDING.
THEREFORE...THE DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER SRN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH ALONG AND
40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM SLK ENEWD TO 40 NE OF
BML...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING DUE TO THE INTENSE WAA...PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC PRECIP BAND...WILL PROVIDE FOR
A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL.

WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EVIDENT IN RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING 2-3 MB/HR PRESSURE
FALLS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO MOVE INLAND OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY AND ALLOW FOR A
MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SRN NH/SWRN ME AND NERN
MA...FURTHER REDUCING THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN
THESE AREAS.

..CROSBIE.. 02/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

42687094 43087319 44867419 45377110 45266881

Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.