Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 705

May 15, 2004Otero County, New Mexico; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2004, 4:38 PM MDT for Otero County, New Mexico; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2004, 4:38 PM MDT (22:38 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2004, 6:45 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Otero County, NM, Culberson County, TX, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX

The radar

The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 147 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2250 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

642 
ACUS11 KWNS 152239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152238 
TXZ000-NMZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NM AND FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152238Z - 160045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST TROUGH 01Z.

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE E SLOPE OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER W OF MRF. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ADVECTED
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR W TX AND SE NM...WHICH HAS COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO SUPPORT
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.  THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
15 KT ESELY SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX.  IT APPEARS
THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SWD/SEWD AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NRN MEXICO.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG-LIVED.  ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
MODEST PW VALUES SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY.

..THOMPSON.. 05/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31650637 31980626 32340603 32730593 33090560 33050496
32740480 31690470 31320437 30850348 30560343 30350430
30410476 31230591

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.