Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 704

May 15, 20049 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2004, 6:05 PM EDT for 9 states. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2004, 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2004, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 85 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 79 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, York County, PA, Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI, Arlington County, VA

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -201 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1038 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

379
ACUS11 KWNS 152206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152205
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 152205Z - 152330Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
/UNTIL ABOUT 01Z/ FROM NRN MD NEWD TO MA/SRN NH.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VT SWWD
ACROSS ERN NY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO WV. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE UP TO 1000
J/KG. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION
OF SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. VAD WINDS FROM CENTRAL PA TO NRN VT INDICATE
35-40 KT WSWLY WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 2-4 KM. THESE WIND SPEEDS
COMBINED WITH 20-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MD/DE TO SRN
NEW ENGLAND. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL PER 18Z RUC...THUS ANY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

..PETERS.. 05/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

43487122 42997071 41987104 41647161 41227319 40837358
40167401 39327464 38727519 38707647 39007758 39747726
40617637 41207540 41937478 42697330

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.