Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 64
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2004, 2:20 AM CST for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2004, 2:20 AM CST (08:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2004, 3:45 AM CST
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 21 counties
Aransas County, TX, Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Waller County, TX, Wharton County, TX
The radar
The Houston radar (KHGX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 795 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 774 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
132 ACUS11 KWNS 020820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020820 TXZ000-020945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CST MON FEB 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL BEND INTO SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020820Z - 020945Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 12Z...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER CENTRAL TX ATTM. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WWD INTO THE CRP AREA...WITH MUCH OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH AND EAST OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG /BOTH IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS/...CURRENT AND FORECAST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE ONLY WEAK MUCAPE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE AND LIMIT ANY WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT...EXCEPT NEARER THE WATER WHERE RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE RESIDES. WW NOT ANTICIPATED...UNLESS DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW BEGINS LIFTING PARCELS THROUGH SHALLOW INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EVANS.. 02/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27629698 27739764 28769748 30309627 30329440 29039401
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 6:59 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aransas, Bastrop, Bee, Caldwell, Calhoun, Colorado and 13 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.