Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 608

May 8, 20044 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2004, 9:55 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 8, 2004, 9:55 PM CDT (02:55 UTC)
Expired
May 9, 2004, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties

Boone County, IL, Cook County, IL, Lake County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Ashtabula County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2004-05-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2004-05-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 284 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1004 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
284 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
337 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 090255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090255 
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-090500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...SRN LWR MI...LAKE ERIE VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...

VALID 090255Z - 090500Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW UNTIL 05Z EXPIRATION.  LARGE
HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED...AND
NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BROADER TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/SPEED MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.  LEAD FEATURE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT UPSTREAM IMPULSE...AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT... WHERE FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY IS MINIMIZING DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CAPE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG...ISOLATED INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE SLOW
TO DIMINISH.  FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. 
UNTIL THEN...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

43309056 43568945 43348739 42938512 42918299 43108096
43007942 41788039 41258253 41908567 41878812 42509059

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 1:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHancock23 min
May 9, 11:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Lake and 4 more2 hr
May 9, 12:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCook, DuPage, Lake, Will6 hr
May 9, 2:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, Lake89 min
May 9, 4:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, Grundy, Henry and 10 more59 min
May 9, 5:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, DuPage, Lake, Will88 min
May 9, 6:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCook, DuPage, Grundy, Kankakee, Kendall, LaSalle and 3 more4 hr
May 8, 8:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Eaton, Genesee, Gratiot, Ingham, Ionia and 8 more119 min
May 9, 9:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Eaton, Hillsdale and 8 more55 min
May 9, 6:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGogebic, Ontonagon8 hr
May 9, 3:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin and 4 more91 min
May 9, 3:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarron, Buffalo, Dunn, Pepin, Pierce, Saint Croix5 hr
May 9, 5:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarron, Buffalo, Burnett, Chippewa, Clark, Douglas and 12 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.