Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 587

May 7, 20044 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2004, 9:53 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2004, 9:53 PM CDT (02:53 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2004, 11:30 PM CDT
In force
97 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 80 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monona County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Sac County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Mower County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Rock County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Knox County, NE, Madison County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Clay County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2004-05-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 989 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2004-05-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 299 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
989 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-384 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1306 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
299 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
532 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

524 
ACUS11 KWNS 080254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080253 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080253Z - 080430Z

RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0240Z...OAX/UEX RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER BOONE COUNTY W OF OLU. STRENGTHENING LLJ JET OVER SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE PLATTE RIVER IS LIKELY AIDING IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB
INDICATE STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG
FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 800MB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE
BUOYANCY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULAR STRONG... PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION.

EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SERN SD
INTO SRN MN ALONG NEWD-EXPANDING LLJ AXIS. WHILE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...STRONGER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION AND A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..MEAD.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41619833 42999807 44079680 44859464 44829290 43869232
42969262 42149506 41349693

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 8:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Buchanan, Clayton, Delaware, Dubuque and 5 more85 min
May 7, 10:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlack Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler, Calhoun and 38 more6 hr
May 8, 12:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton, Winneshiek64 min
May 8, 12:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Winneshiek6 hr
May 8, 2:27 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlack Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler, Calhoun and 27 more93 min
May 8, 3:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Winneshiek54 min
May 8, 5:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Winneshiek55 min
May 8, 2:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audubon, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista and 37 more3 hr
May 8, 3:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 38 more5 hr
May 8, 5:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Benton, Boone, Buena Vista and 33 more2 hr
May 8, 4:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Buffalo, Butler, Clay, Dawson, Franklin and 14 more4 hr
May 8, 6:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Clay, Hall, Hamilton, Howard and 5 more2 hr
May 7, 7:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Lawrence, Meade86 min
May 8, 12:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Harding, Lawrence, Meade, Pennington, Perkins3 hr
May 8, 2:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCButte, Dewey, Harding, Meade, Perkins, Stanley and 1 more5 hr
May 8, 5:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Dewey, Harding, Meade, Perkins, Stanley and 1 more64 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.