Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 556

May 2, 200410 counties in Kansas; 30 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2004, 11:52 AM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; 30 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 2, 2004, 11:52 AM CDT (16:52 UTC)
Expired
May 2, 2004, 2:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2004-05-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2004-05-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -48 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

970 
ACUS11 KWNS 021652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021652 
MOZ000-KSZ000-021915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO MO OZARKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021652Z - 021915Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW...BUT
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED.

MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN A SWATH FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...WHERE INCREASE IN LOW TOPPED SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BY THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.  AS
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES UP TO 500 J/KG OR SO WITH FURTHER
HEATING... UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN FAVORABLY
COOL/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL...WHICH MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 05/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38999522 39009450 39009333 38439206 38079179 37399137
36809317 37189485 38339605

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 2, 9:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Gasconade, Lincoln, Montgomery, Pike, Saint Charles and 2 more116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.