Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 552

May 2, 200418 counties in Alabama; 15 counties in Florida; 20 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2004, 1:37 AM CDT for 18 counties in Alabama; 15 counties in Florida; 20 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2004, 1:37 AM CDT (06:37 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2004, 3:30 AM CDT
In force: 113 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 53 counties

Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Lee County, GA, Marion County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Webster County, GA

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1241 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 878 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 87 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

728 
ACUS11 KWNS 020638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020637 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-020830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 020637Z - 020830Z

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVES ENEWD AT
AROUND 25-30 KTS.  RUC2 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTMS ARE ROOTED
JUST ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  BUT...THE CLOUD BEARING MEAN
SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND HAS BEEN ENCOURAGING SMALL SCALE BOWS
WITHIN THE LINE THAT COULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR A
DAMAGING WIND GUST.

DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND
WEAK CINH.  THUS...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.  BUT... DESPITE THE
APPEARANCE OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION WITH THE LINE...STORM SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISORGANIZED GIVEN POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  EXTRAPOLATION
HAS THE LINE REACHING SWRN GA AND THE CNTRL FL PNHDL BETWEEN 11-1200
UTC.

UNLESS THE STORMS BECOME STRONGER OR SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZING MORE
THAN EXPECTED...A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

..RACY.. 05/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

28908760 32378725 32438407 28668430

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 10:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brevard, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Nassau, Orange and 5 more	2 hr
May 2, 11:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Bleckley, Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Columbia and 23 more	117 min
May 2, 12:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bleckley and 45 more	6 hr
May 2, 2:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Screven	2 hr
May 2, 3:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bryan, Chatham, Effingham, Liberty, Long	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.