Alert archive / Connecticut / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 55

January 27, 2004Suffolk County, New York; Newport County, Washington County, Rhode Island

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 27, 2004, 9:20 PM EST for Suffolk County, New York; Newport County, Washington County, Rhode Island. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 27, 2004, 9:20 PM EST (02:20 UTC)
Expired: Jan 27, 2004, 11:45 PM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Suffolk County, NY, Newport County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 642 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 341 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

201 
ACUS11 KWNS 280221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280220 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-280445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 280220Z - 280445Z

TWO TO THREE HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY IN NARROW
SWATH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...AS INTENSE
MID/UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP
LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FOCUSED IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN
CONNECTICUT INTO EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
THROUGH 06Z.  IN RESPONSE...HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY BY 03-04Z
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
APPEAR MOIST/COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
 
AREA OF STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PROVIDENCE VICINITY BY 06Z...DRIER
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AXIS WILL DELAY ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER SNOW TOTALS.

..KERR.. 01/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

40847249 41047351 41767355 41987312 41847241 41687197
41617116 41397087 41347087

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Rhode Island, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.