Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2539

December 13, 2004Chautauqua County, New York; 5 counties in Ohio; Crawford County, Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 13, 2004, 2:12 PM EST for Chautauqua County, New York; 5 counties in Ohio; Crawford County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 13, 2004, 2:12 PM EST (19:12 UTC)
Expired: Dec 13, 2004, 6:15 PM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Ashtabula County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Lake County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Crawford County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 763 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 254 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 272 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

771 
ACUS11 KWNS 131912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131912 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...OH/PA/NY LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131912Z - 132315Z

MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INVOF FAR NE OH/NW PA/WRN NY ERIE LAKE SHORE...DEVELOPING
SWD AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OWING TO ONSET OF NWLY BOUNDARY
LAYER TRAJECTORIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS
1.5-2.0 HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AMIDST CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...FETCH OF STRONG W/SW WINDS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LES IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM FAR NE OH INTO CHAUTAUQUA/ERIE COUNTIES OF NY.
HOWEVER WITH PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SW
ONTARIO/NRN LAKE ERIE...15Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRANSITION TO NWLY
/APPROX 320 DEG/ LOW LEVEL FLOW BY 21Z-23Z FROM NE OH INTO ERIE LAKE
SHORE OF NY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD A WWD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS CUYAHOGA/LORAIN COUNTIES OF OH THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASED SNOWFALL SWD
INTO AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

..GUYER.. 12/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

42467936 42437907 42057932 41787976 41578004 41288076
41248119 41278204 41478203 41818119 42088012 42307961

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.