Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2413

November 20, 200434 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 20, 2004, 1:55 PM CST for 34 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 20, 2004, 1:55 PM CST (19:55 UTC)
Expired
Nov 20, 2004, 4:00 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Irion County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2004-11-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 36 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2004-11-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
36 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-119 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
895 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

609 
ACUS11 KWNS 201955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201955 
TXZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201955Z - 202200Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. 

ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK SLY
FLOW ABOVE MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR IS MAINTAINING FEED OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AS SRN EDGE OF LEAD VORT MAX OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S
OVER MUCH OF NERN TX WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60.  MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF
FAVORABLE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CONVECTION PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 11/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30569840 30279974 30350067 30980122 31640092 32469968
32959819 32689680 31789649

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 19, 11:26 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris and 4 more2 hr
Nov 20, 12:23 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBee, Calhoun, Goliad, Jackson, Live Oak, Matagorda and 3 more3 hr
Nov 20, 5:11 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Calhoun, Colorado, Fort Bend, Jackson, Lavaca and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.