Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 2313
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2004, 7:11 PM EDT for 23 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2004, 7:11 PM EDT (23:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2004, 9:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 23 counties
Beaufort County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Craven County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 272 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 881 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
067 ACUS11 KWNS 132312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132311 NCZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132311Z - 140115Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A SFC LOW. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS ERN NC WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 34847637 34757661 34917822 35327944 35707961 36257919 36167782 35897682 35537626
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 1:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde, Jones and 3 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.