Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2292

October 4, 20046 parishes in Louisiana; 14 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 4, 2004, 1:23 PM CDT for 6 parishes in Louisiana; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2004, 1:23 PM CDT (18:23 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2004, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Chambers County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Polk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 748 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1242 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

857 
ACUS11 KWNS 041824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041823 
LAZ000-TXZ000-042030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041823Z - 042030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NW LA NEAR NATCHITOCHES
SWWD INTO SERN TX NEAR HUNTSVILLE. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT.
THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THOUGH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED...FORWARD
PROPAGATION ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING
CONVERGENCE AND 20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. WEAK
CAP AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD SEWD
PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AND
ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE SWD AND
RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR HAVE BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

30709579 31159439 31589282 29939252 29769406 29239524
29819616

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 3, 10:40 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Castro, Cochran and 21 more	3 hr
Oct 4, 7:31 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Dawson, Ector and 20 more	29 min
Oct 4, 10:14 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Angelina, Brazos, Burleson, Falls, Freestone, Grimes and 14 more	2 hr
Oct 4, 4:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet and 17 more	3 hr
Oct 4, 5:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Gaines, Loving and 5 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.