Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2199

September 12, 2004Colbert County, Lauderdale County, Alabama; 23 counties in Mississippi; 27 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 12, 2004, 3:41 PM CDT for Colbert County, Lauderdale County, Alabama; 23 counties in Mississippi; 27 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 12, 2004, 3:41 PM CDT (20:41 UTC)
Expired
Sep 12, 2004, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 52 counties

Colbert County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Perry County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN, Williamson County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2004-09-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2004-09-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1709 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

170 
ACUS11 KWNS 122044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122041 
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-122245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NW AL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122041Z - 122245Z

POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL... AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SLOWLY
TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO
CONSOLIDATION INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 
THIS...IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR
PROFILES...CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
IN STRONGEST CELLS. 

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEYOND PEAK
HEATING...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE... AND LARGE
HAIL THREAT MAY DIMINISH BY AROUND 13/00Z.

..KERR.. 09/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

35748927 36478872 36558770 36098675 35408705 34828766
34078817 33498884 33419011 33819081 34708969

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 12, 10:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Pontotoc, Prentiss and 3 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.