Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2155

September 1, 200434 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 1, 2004, 3:20 PM CDT for 34 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 1, 2004, 3:20 PM CDT (20:20 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2004, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Webster County, IA, Wright County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2004-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2004-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 68 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1597 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

863 
ACUS11 KWNS 012023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012020 
IAZ000-012215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 012020Z - 012215Z

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...
WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING...FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
MUCH OF IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
THIS IS SOUTH OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA/
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING
OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ONGOING ACROSS IOWA.  THIS IS PERHAPS
AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  ADDITIONAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
22-23Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE DES MOINES AREA...WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.  WEAK FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES
WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...POSSIBLY GUSTY
WINDS...IN MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 09/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

43109356 42609177 41879103 41009146 40869307 41449421
42789478

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.