Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2136

August 27, 2004Butler County, Cowley County, Sumner County, Kansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma; Foard County, Hardeman County, Wilbarger County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 27, 2004, 4:54 PM CDT for Butler County, Cowley County, Sumner County, Kansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma; Foard County, Hardeman County, Wilbarger County, Texas. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 27, 2004, 4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)
Expired: Aug 27, 2004, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 96 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 22 counties

Butler County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Custer County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Noble County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 794Aug 27, 5:20 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 933 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -264 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1399 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 183 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 242 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

743 
ACUS11 KWNS 272156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272154 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272154Z - 272330Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM JUST E ICT SWWD TO W OF END TO NEAR LTS. PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WHICH IS PRECEEDING STRONGER SYSTEM
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....WELL MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALL SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...

37419763 38049685 37779604 33759907 33619980 34320005

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 27, 1:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 24 more	113 min
Aug 27, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atchison, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jackson and 10 more	6 hr
Aug 27, 3:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jackson and 10 more	86 min
Aug 27, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Sumner, Wilson	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.