Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2102

August 25, 200429 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 25, 2004, 1:44 AM CDT for 29 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 25, 2004, 1:44 AM CDT (06:44 UTC)
Expired
Aug 25, 2004, 3:15 AM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties

Adams County, NE, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Butler County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Madison County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Valley County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2004-08-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1861 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2004-08-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 30 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1861 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1282 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

907 
ACUS11 KWNS 250646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250644 
IAZ000-NEZ000-250815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250644Z - 250815Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH
ATTM...THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW.

A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 35 W EAR EWD AT 30-35 KT THROUGH S
CENTRAL NEB. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED WWD INTO NERN CO. MECHANISM FOR LIFT IS NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...THOUGH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT SPREADING EWD INTO THE
PLAINS STATES APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE MAIN LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 


EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE ROOTED AROUND
800 MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN AROUND 2500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. STORMS ARE LIKELY NOT REALIZING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2
KM...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE CAP APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FURTHER EAST FROM NRN MO NEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED AND UNLESS COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

..IMY.. 08/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40259897 40849975 41489979 42159838 42369635 40919668
40299821

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 24, 8:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Pawnee, Richardson and 1 more7 hr
Aug 24, 10:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Buffalo, Custer, Dawson, Frontier, Garfield and 11 more2 hr
Aug 24, 11:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGage, Johnson, Nemaha, Pawnee, Richardson118 min
Aug 25, 8:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCass, Fillmore, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Lancaster and 6 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.