Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2011

August 15, 200419 counties in Colorado; Laramie County, Wyoming

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 15, 2004, 2:07 PM MDT for 19 counties in Colorado; Laramie County, Wyoming. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 15, 2004, 2:07 PM MDT (20:07 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2004, 4:00 PM MDT
In force: 113 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Clear Creek County, CO, Custer County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Gilpin County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Park County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Teller County, CO, Weld County, CO, Laramie County, WY

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 357 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -300 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1614 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

576 
ACUS11 KWNS 152008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152007 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152007Z - 152200Z

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FROM NCENTRAL
INTO SCENTRAL CO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE MTNS INTO THE FRONT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG LEE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF DEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOUR AND OVER THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AREA OF FAR SERN WY.

FLOW HAS BECOME PRIMARILY DUE ELY OVER THE FRONT RANGE ENHANCING
UPSLOPE INTO THE REGION. 20 KT NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE
LOWER WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION FOR AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH JUST EAST OF DEN AND OVER
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OVER
1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID
IN MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORM MOTIONS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD
BE SSWLY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

37080488 37370517 38040538 38680557 39210582 40270552
41060513 41500447 41360411 40730368 39430388 37130412

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.