Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2008

August 15, 20046 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 15, 2004, 2:33 PM EDT for 6 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2004, 2:33 PM EDT (18:33 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2004, 4:30 PM EDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Craven County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 33 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2004-08-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 28 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2004-08-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 68 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
28 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-149 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
736 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

706 
ACUS11 KWNS 151834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151833 
NCZ000-152030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151833Z - 152030Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
THE COASTAL FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL A BAROCLINIC ZONE PARALLEL TO AND
IMMEDIATELY INLAND FROM THE NC COAST.  THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN HAVE
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ALONG
AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG/.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  THERE WILL BE A NARROW
CORRIDOR WITH SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT ILM TO EWN TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A TORNADO
WATCH...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER FLOW.

..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

34527743 34407783 34587815 34807799 35007769 35387701
35547642 35507598 35167587

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.