Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 1849
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 3, 2004, 5:35 AM EDT for Carteret County, North Carolina. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 3, 2004, 5:35 AM EDT (09:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 3, 2004, 10:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
County Carteret County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1945 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 668 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
050 ACUS11 KWNS 030936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030935 NCZ000-031430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NC -- MHX-HAT AREA INCLUDING SRN OUTER BANKS AND CAPE LOOKOUT CONCERNING...TC TORNADO POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 030935Z - 031430Z POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER WATER -- BUT MAY ALSO SPREAD NEWD FROM CAPE FEAR AREA ACROSS OCRACOKE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS INNER BANDS OF HURRICANE ALEX CROSS AREA. BECAUSE OF ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT AND VERY SMALL LAND AREA INVOLVED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TIME SERIES OF VWP FROM ILM/MHX SHOWS INCREASE IN 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AS SFC FLOW BACKS AND WINDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT BOUNDARY LAYER. GREAT MAJORITY OF ZONE WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NWRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME SHOULD SPREAD ONTO SRN OUTER BANKS THROUGH 10-11Z AND NEWD THEREAFTER. MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE WITHIN INNER BANDS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LIFT. RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED/ISOLATED/DISTINCT CELLS WILL NOT BE VERY COMMON IN DENSE PRECIP FIELD OF INNER BAND REGION...HOWEVER ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM WITHIN THESE BANDS MAY ROTATE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...MOVING NWWD THEN WWD BEFORE DISSIPATING N OF EYE. MEANWHILE...CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH TROPICAL WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES FROM HEAVIER CORES...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRAIN ALONG AXES OF SPIRAL BANDS. REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON ALEX. ..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX... 34687687 34937654 35187598 35297560 35297550 35247551 35207555 35097578 34867610 34567649
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.