Mesoscale Discussion 182

Issued

Mar 14, 2004, 12:07 PM CST (18:07 UTC)

Expired

Mar 14, 2004, 2:30 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

870 
ACUS11 KWNS 141807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141807 
TXZ000-142030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CST SUN MAR 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141807Z - 142030Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS WRN AND SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IF COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM THREAT BECOMES CLEARER IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY
AND THE NRN HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LARGE DISORGANIZED MCS OVER ERN TX TRAILS
WNWWD OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. MODEST INSOLATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN A SLOW INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN AND SRN TX THROUGH THE MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADS ENEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. EXPECT WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
WEAK CAPPING...TO PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS...WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...DO SHOW SUFFICIENT VEERING AND SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER
FOR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS...AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL. LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 03/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...

28879992 29900165 30520331 31510319 31449939 29979831
29619752 29629710 29539665 29079648 28339746 27489766
27019804 26949847 26939901 28799990

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.