Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1817

August 1, 20044 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 1, 2004, 1:48 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 1, 2004, 1:48 PM CDT (18:48 UTC)
Expired
Aug 1, 2004, 3:45 PM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 85 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Greene County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Monona County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Sac County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Webster County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Big Stone County, MN, Brown County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Pope County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rock County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Cedar County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Knox County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Clay County, SD, Codington County, SD, Davison County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2004-08-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 319 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2004-08-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 10 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
319 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-316 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1777 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

200 
ACUS11 KWNS 011849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011848 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-012045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011848Z - 012045Z

TORNADO WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN SD...SWRN MN
...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM DSM TO SOUTH
OF SUX...AND THEN NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
PIR. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SWD AND EXTENDED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL SD NEWD INTO NRN MN. THE AIR MASS BETWEEN
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...AND WILL CONTINUE DESTABILIZING WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE ABR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE CAP HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE 12 RUN. THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD CONTINUE
ERODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 45
KT...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO
SUPERCELLS. HAIL 3 INCHES OR LARGER WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
THE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

..IMY.. 08/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

43829844 45739847 45789742 45719448 44829424 43349404
41659424 42349817

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 31, 8:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Emmet, Lyon, Osceola, Winnebago56 min
Jul 31, 9:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Hancock and 10 more5 hr
Jul 31, 11:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Chickasaw, Clay and 19 more64 min
Aug 1, 1:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 24 more91 min
Aug 1, 5:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Bremer and 59 more94 min
Aug 1, 12:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Crawford, Greene and 3 more64 min
Aug 1, 2:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Cass, Clarke, Dallas and 15 more58 min
Aug 1, 3:15 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBig Stone, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Douglas, Grant and 21 more7 hr
Aug 1, 3:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKanabec, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Pine2 hr
Aug 1, 4:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAitkin, Benton, Chisago, Crow Wing, Isanti, Kanabec and 3 more5 hr
Jul 31, 10:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boyd, Brown, Cedar, Cherry, Holt and 5 more93 min
Aug 1, 6:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Campbell, Corson, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk and 4 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.