Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1713

July 16, 200418 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 16, 2004, 4:01 PM MDT for 18 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 16, 2004, 4:01 PM MDT (22:01 UTC)
Expired
Jul 16, 2004, 6:30 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Adams County, CO, Alamosa County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Custer County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Park County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Saguache County, CO, Teller County, CO

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 240 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2004-07-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 192 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2004-07-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
192 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
624 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

873 
ACUS11 KWNS 162201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162201 
COZ000-NMZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 162201Z - 170030Z

POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1.5-2
INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF CA WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELY FLOW OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM ON
CURRENT PUEBLO VWP SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO SELY THROUGH
17/06Z...HOWEVER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN REGION OF
DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT RANGE. CURRENT AND FORECAST STORM MOTIONS
INDICATE A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEING THE CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE WHERE STORM
TRAINING WILL BE MOST LIKELY.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

37090635 38430641 39680549 40410474 39930372 38520380
37040422 36580523

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 15, 9:00 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPhillips, Sedgwick, Yuma90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.