Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 1539
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 6, 2004, 2:45 AM CDT for 15 counties in Kansas; 39 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 2004, 2:45 AM CDT (07:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 6, 2004, 4:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 54 counties
Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Osage County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Audrain County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Henry County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Shelby County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Warren County, MO
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1253 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -85 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1765 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 63 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 110 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 2.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
387 ACUS11 KWNS 060746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060745 MOZ000-KSZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060745Z - 060945Z STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN KS AND INTO NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 09Z. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS SMALL SCALE WAVE CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON NRN SEGMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER NERN KS. DEEP BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THIS MESOLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF TOP/MKC AREAS...AND THEN EAST TO STL. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THIS FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AS MOISTURE INFLUX AND ASCENT ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO OVERCOME WEAK INHIBITION. WHILE REGION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE AND MIDWEST SHORT WAVE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38439072 37619586 39629565 40219205
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 7:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Graham, Jewell and 15 more | 65 min |
| Jul 5, 7:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cloud, Decatur, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 5, 7:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Barber, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee and 17 more | 96 min |
| Jul 5, 8:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Finney, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Hamilton and 16 more | 55 min |
| Jul 5, 10:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Barber, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 39 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 5, 11:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 28 more | 59 min |
| Jul 5, 11:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Grant, Harper, Haskell and 7 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 6, 1:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Barber, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 46 more | 119 min |
| Jul 6, 3:10 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 27 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 6, 5:18 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 26 more | 117 min |
| Jul 5, 7:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Camden, Cole, Crawford, Dallas, Franklin, Gasconade and 13 more | 55 min |
| Jul 5, 11:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren and 1 more | 91 min |
| Jul 6, 3:50 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, McDonald, Stone | 5 hr |
| Jul 6, 6:50 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson and 11 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 6, 11:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dent, Howell and 19 more | 59 min |
| Jul 6, 12:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dunklin, Iron and 13 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 6, 2:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dunklin, Iron and 12 more | 56 min |
| Jul 6, 2:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | City of Saint Louis | 37 min |
| Jul 6, 5:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dunklin, Iron and 11 more | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.