Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 151

March 1, 20048 counties in Indiana; 19 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 1, 2004, 7:40 PM EST for 8 counties in Indiana; 19 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 1, 2004, 7:40 PM EST (00:40 UTC)
Expired: Mar 1, 2004, 9:45 PM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 27 counties

Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 308 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

816 
ACUS11 KWNS 020041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020040 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-020245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST MON MAR 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN AND SRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16...

VALID 020040Z - 020245Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW UNTIL 02Z.  NEW WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

LIFTED PARCELS...COMPOSING ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA...APPEAR LIKELY TO HAVE EMANATED
FROM WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HEATED INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS AIR MASS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO COOL WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.  AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN BY/SHORTLY AFTER 02Z.

..KERR.. 03/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

43718568 43678459 42448379 41818420 41378510 41038600
41078678 42048613 42558604

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.