Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1502

July 4, 20049 counties in Illinois; 27 counties in Indiana; 19 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2004, 3:04 PM CDT for 9 counties in Illinois; 27 counties in Indiana; 19 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2004, 3:04 PM CDT (20:04 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2004, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 116 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 55 counties

Clay County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Richland County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Scott County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 825 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

735 
ACUS11 KWNS 042004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042004 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...N CNTRL KY...SW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...

VALID 042004Z - 042200Z

CONTINUE WW.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS.

GROWING CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...WEST/NORTH OF EVANSVILLE.  SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS
COMPRISING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE VERY MOIST/POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 70S.

WHILE BASE OF UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED ABOVE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/
MESO HIGH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/NORTH OF
EVANSVILLE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING OUTFLOW SPREADING TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET... AND
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER...FROM LOUISVILLE INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA...BY THE
04/23-05/00Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38318890 38818848 38958776 39138714 39378657 39328586
38938497 38378499 37758555 37418603 37348753 37598808

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 11:24 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Cumberland, Edwards and 22 more	3 hr
Jul 4, 11:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Alexander, Massac, Pulaski	4 hr
Jul 4, 1:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Cumberland, Edwards and 19 more	6 hr
Jul 4, 10:38 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fulton	2 hr
Jul 4, 3:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Barren, Clinton, Cumberland, Logan, Metcalfe and 5 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.