Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 13

January 6, 2004Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 6, 2004, 12:36 PM EST for Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 6, 2004, 12:36 PM EST (17:36 UTC)
Expired: Jan 6, 2004, 4:30 PM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 833 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 135 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

868 
ACUS11 KWNS 061736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061736 
NYZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 061736Z - 062130Z

A SINGLE W-E LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SNOWFALL
RATES ACROSS THE COUNTIES OF OSWEGO...SRN JEFFERSON AND SRN LEWIS BY
OR AFTER 21Z.  GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SINGLE BAND WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2-3 INCH PER HOUR CAN
BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE
AS OF 17Z.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM
THE SURFACE TO 3 KM IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TEMPORARILY DISORGANIZE THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.  MEANWHILE...AREA VADS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED SSELY TO BETWEEN ITH AND BGM AT 17Z.  BUF
RADAR SHOWS 1-3 NARROW BANDS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER LAKE ONTARIO ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS EVIDENT OF THE
DEEPENING WLY WINDS.

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 20Z...WITH WLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO.  ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE WARM /4-5C/ ICE-FREE LAKE WATERS STEEPENING SFC-3 KM
LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 9 C/KM.  THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
WITH HIGH SNOWFALL RATES.  IN ADDITION...WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... SUPPORTING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

..PETERS.. 01/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

43907617 43927558 43807521 43497526 43337554 43357644
43597626

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.