Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1000 AM MDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOISTURE REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE DAY FOR MOIST CONVECTION IN STORE FOR THE
CWA TODAY. MOIST PLUME RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH
PWS BETWEEN 100 AND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM FGZ TO SLC AND LKN
TO BOI THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY TO BE PROVIDED BY COOLING BETWEEN
550 AND 400 MB IN BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BOOST TO CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST UTAH WHERE THE
LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AS 300 MB JET LIFTS ACROSS UTAH IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE. THIS FEATURE TO PROVIDE MARGINAL 850 TO 400
MB SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30-35KTS AFTER 2100Z FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST UTAH. WIND AND
HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT IN MOST AREAS. ADDITIONAL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE NORTH FROM ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH ROTATING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE PROVIDING
LIFT IN THE MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER SOUTH. TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
STORMS IN SOUTHERN UTAH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED THREAT OF LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING SO MODERATE POTENTIAL INDEX LOOKS GOOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED TODAY. THIS
MAY CHANGE IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

BRENCHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
645 AM MDT MON AUG 2 2004

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-031300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
645 AM MDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN UTAH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE GREATEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.