Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE UTAH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN
AXIS EXTENDING TOWARD THE UINTA BASIN AT THIS TIME. WHAT CONVECTION
WE ARE SEEING TODAY IS NORTH OF THAT AXIS WHICH WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWEST WY BY ABOUT 00Z. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME CONVECTION IN
THE COMMA HEAD OVER CENTRAL NV AND THAT COULD CLIP THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE ONLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS PROBABLY BEEN KEEPING THINGS CAPPED BUT
CUMULUS HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.

THE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THAT ALMOST HAS TO KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  SO PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  THE GFS DOES INCREASE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WAITS UNTIL THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING A BETTER SURGE
NORTH.

EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE IT WILL BE HARD TO GET VERY
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AS THE HIGH CENTER TENDS TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA
WITH WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS QUITE WARM AND LIMIT ANY DEEP
INSTABILITY.  SO MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK RATHER THAN GETTING BONE DRY.  IF THAT
HAPPENS WE WOULD HAVE SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION CONTINUING.  THAT IN
TURN COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENT FORECASTS
SUGGEST.  HOWEVER THIS TENDS TO GO A LITTLE AGAINST THE RECENT MODEL
TRENDS AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK JUST HOT
AND DRY.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPANDED TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST
DESERTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...RED FLAG WARNING WRN ZONES 800 PM MDT TODAY.
WY...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

SANDERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

UTZ015>017-019-020-101300-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD
OF UTAH.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME WETTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
523 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

IDZ024-UTZ001>005-015-100100-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
523 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

...STRONG MICROBURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING STRONG
MICROBURST WINDS UP 70 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
DESERTS OF NORTHWEST UTAH...INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CACHE VALLEY.  THE STORM CELLS AND ASSOCIATED MICROBURST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

POWER LINE DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN WESTERN TOOELE AT ABOUT 500
PM THIS EVENING. ALSO WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH HAVE BEEN RECORDED
AT WENDOVER AND IN THE LOGAN AREA BY WEATHER EQUIPMENT. SECURE
LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS TO AVOID DAMAGE THIS EVENING AND BEWARE OF LOCAL
BLOWING DUST ON AREA ROADS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
535 PM MDT FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOOELE                  40.54N 112.30W
07/09/2004                   TOOELE             UT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINE DAMAGE FROM MICROBURST WINDS

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 SSW LOGAN            41.56N 111.93W
07/09/2004  77 MPH           CACHE              UT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED BY ANEMOMETER. TRAINED SPOTTER. ALSO REPORTED
            ROOF TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE.

&&