Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAVE UTAH IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY HAS LED
TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS UTAH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND HAS BEEN OF
THE PULSE VARIETY.  THIS MAY CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING AS TWO
SEPARATE DYNAMIC FEATURES AFFECT THE STATE.

A VORTICITY MAX MOVING NORTH THROUGH CNTRL NV THIS AFTERNOON
GENERATING SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NRN NV.  DYNAMICS AND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CLIP EXTREME NW UT THIS EVENING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BORDER REGION FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING.  DOWN SOUTH AN
APPARENT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NRN AZ SHOULD KEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GOING MUCH OF THE EVENING.  DYNAMICS AND DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY BOOSTED BY GOOD SURFACE HEATING SHOULD GENERATE STRONG
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  NOT ANTICIPATING THAT GOOD
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...SO THE BIGGEST THREAT SHOULD COME FROM
MICROBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED BRIEF/HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO ACTIVE AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.  EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE EXTREME SW WHERE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CALIFORNIA COASTAL TROUGH
ADVECTS A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THAT PORTION OF THE STATE.

UPPER PATTERN APPEARS TO TURN STATIC FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ALONG
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  TRAJECTORIES LOOKS TO BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WRN ZONES
MUCH OF THE WEEK.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
WILL LIKELY GET DRAWN BACK ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES DURING THE WEEK.
THE THING TO WATCH DURING THE WEEK WILL BE IF THE CA COASTAL LOW
DROPS FURTHER SOUTH...AND TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT A BIT EAST OF
SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN MORE MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE STATE AND
THE THREAT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...RED FLAG WARNING SW UTAH BELOW 7000 FEET THROUGH 02Z.
ID...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

CONGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
600 AM MDT SUN JUN 27 2004

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>018-020-WYZ021-011300-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-
HENRY MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT WED JUN 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST UTAH. THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.