Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 PM MDT THU JUN 3 2004

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA. A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE INLAND THROUGH THIS RIDGE AHEAD OF
BROAD COLD TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO N. ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

A COUPLE OF THESE WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
LATER TONIGHT. AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
700 MB...BUT VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SO GENERALLY
CLEAR THERE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES BRINGS A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL
UT. THIS COULD FOCUS CONVECTION MORE OVER CENTRAL UT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY MAX TEMPS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN COMES BACK THROUGH AGAIN AS A DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY WHICH WILL AGAIN COOL THE NORTH SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. THIS 2ND
SURGE ON SUNDAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRY OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH/JET SYSTEM INTO THE N. ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MUCH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE
STALLED COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY/MONDAY.

12Z GFS FINALLY BRINGS THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON WED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACTUAL TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP THREAT FROM
THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT...SO CURRENT FORECAST MAINLY LOWERS THE
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WITHOUT REGARD TO PRECIP THREAT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

DUNN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
630 AM MDT THU JUN 3 2004

UTZ012>021-041400-
CASTLE COUNTRY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
630 AM MDT THU JUN 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCALES. THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS MAY CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY.