Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MST FRI APR 2 2004

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POSITION OF THE
LOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW RECENTERING ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
WILL MAINTAIN THE DEEP/MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS UTAH. THE
MEAN POSITION OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF NOAM
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS IN TURN
WILL BOTTLE UP THE PATTERN OVER THE WEST...LEAVING THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME.

VORTICITY MAX ROTATING N-NW OUT OF SE AZ THIS MORNING COULD BE A
PLAYER FOR EXTREME SRN UT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD GENERATE CONVECTION OVER
NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLIP INTO EXTREME SRN
UT LATER ON.  THE STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER
CNTRL/NRN AZ.  STILL...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTION AS GOOD
VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR EXISTS.

UP NORTH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING OFF TO THE NW HAS PROBABLY
LEFT A BIT MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE.  ANY CAP THERE PROBABLY
WILL BREAK LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL PROBABLY BRING BACK SPOTTY CONVECTION LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FOR OUR FAR NE ZONES
TODAY.  FAVORABLE NEAR 700 MB EASTERLY WINDS AND N-NE SURFACE
GRADIENT ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ACROSS SW WY AND A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NE/NRN UT.  HAVE UPPED THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

PRECIP-WISE...THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THAT THE
SOUTH WILL SEE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIP...AND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OF CONVECTION UP NORTH.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK FINE ON
THAT SCORE.  UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS WINDS AND TO CLEAN OUT
MORNING REFERENCES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

CONGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1205 PM MST FRI APR 2 2004

UTZ013-016>021-022100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
1205 PM MST FRI APR 2 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM LOCATED OVER ARIZONA WILL KEEP A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER UTAH TODAY.  THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL GENERATE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
LOCATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 21
IN WESTERN UTAH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.  SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

PERSONS ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR OR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THEIR AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MAY EASILY CATCH YOU OFF GUARD.  PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THESE
STORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.