Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
240 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH DEFORMATION
AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WITH ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUING IN THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS. THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CWA AS SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA/UTAH INTERSECTION. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE...THE INCREASED WINDS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS
AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WIND...BEST INSTABILITY MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN WITH
PWS IN THE 1/2 INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WARM NICELY THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS IN
NORTHERN UTAH AND WITH SOUTH WIND WILL REALIZE THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

BOTH ETA AND GFS TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF BAJA AND BRING PWS
UP THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THE
MOISTURE SHOWS UP IN CURRENT GOES SOUNDER DATA AND WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR TAPPING ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER WITH ALL THE INCREASE IN THE PW THE AIRMASS DOESNT LOOK VERY
UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO
QPFS MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST GETS DRAWN
UP THROUGH UTAH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN
BEHIND IT.  SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DRYING ACTUALLY MAKES IT
INTO THE CWA BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF UTAH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND LITTLE IF ANY DRIER
IN THE EAST.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN BECOMES ELONGATED
EAST-WEST ALONG ABOUT 35N FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ARIZONA...
LEAVING UTAH UNDER A DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
     WESTERN UTAH.
WY...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

BRENCHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
600 AM MDT TUE JUL 6 2004

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>021-WYZ021-071200-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
OF UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.