Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND WHERE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NE INTO WC TX TONIGHT IT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE INVERTED TROF OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY OF
WC TX WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION...
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THRU TONIGHT AS QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
PROGGED BY ETA WHICH INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO DO SO AS OF
18Z.

WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE WAY...NEARLY STATIONARY
INVERTED TROF...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HELP OF LOW LEVEL
JET...AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING.  VERY HEAVY RAIN
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS A BIG PART OF WC TX. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE INVERTED TROF. THE
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE CONCHO VALLEY...THE
HEARTLAND...AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. EXPECT THE STORMS TO MOVE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.  WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINTY OF THE BIG
COUNTRY...KEPT POPS IN THE PACKAGE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THEN AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...LOWERED POPS UNTIL THURS WHEN
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     56  68  52  72 /  90  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  57  72  54  77 / 100  20  10  10
JUNCTION    59  73  55  77 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TX THROUGH 12Z.

&&

26/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
216 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-061915-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
216 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SOUTH OF A BIG SPRING...WINTERS...BROWNWOOD LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A SWEETWATER...ABILENE...BROWNWOOD LINE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE FLOODING ON ALREADY SATURATED AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

TXZ049-054-098-099-113-114-127-128-052321-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
517 PM CDT MON APR 5 2004

...AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROADCHING VIEW...

AT 519 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PROUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUST TO
NEAR 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VIEW...OR 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE.  THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

BOTH VIEW AND THE ABILENE AREA ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.