Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1033 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

LOOKS LIKE THE THE DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR EAST...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FOR MOST OF OUR AREA...WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR AND MORE SUN.  HAVE
DECREASED CLOUDS AND RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. AND DECREASED POPS...KEEPING HIGHEST POPS ALONG OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES.

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS AND REMOVE
PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING BIG COUNTRY WITH ONE JET STREAK AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE OTHER. THUS MOST
ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER CAN NOT
TAKE OUT POPS ALL TOGETHER YET UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES BY.

&&

.CLIMATE...ABILENE IS NOW UP TO THE SECOND WETTEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACING
TORNADO WATCH.  WENT AHEAD AND ADDED 60 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD
WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WC TX
LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHEN ACCORDING TO THE VAD WIND PROFILE TO
30 KNOTS. ALREADY SEEING ELEVATED TSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS MAF CWA IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500JOULES/KG...AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY...EXPECT MOSTLY ELEVATED TYPE SUPERCELL STORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.  BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORMS TO BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED WITH RETURNING BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES GIVEN BOTH INSTABILITY...SURFACE
BOUNDARY...LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND INCREASING
SHEAR.

WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY AS HEAVY RAIN FROM
SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING GIVING VERY LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  EXPECT DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WC TX.
COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING MORNING.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND NEXT
FRONT IS PROGGED BY GFS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  AT ANY RATE...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 9
AM FOR CONCHO...COLEMAN...BROWN AND MCCULLOCH.

&&

27/BRAZZELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
248 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

TXZ072-232145-

TOM GREEN TX-
248 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CST FOR TOM GREEN
COUNTY...

AT 243 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO...
MOVING TOWARD THE CITY. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.