Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTH THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS SLOWED DURING THE DAY DUE TO SFC HEATING.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SJT CWA BY 06Z THU.  A LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF JCT AND VIS
SAT IMAGES SHOWING GROWING CU FIELD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY
TO THE LLANO RIVER WHERE DEWPOINTS RANGE 58F TO 63F.  THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LI IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY.  ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT STORMS TO PULSE TO SEVERE LIMITS.  MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT LACK OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  LATER
TONIGHT...STORMS MAY BECOME ELEVATED AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  IT MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS
FREEZING LEVELS DROP.  AFTER 06Z...ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
BUT ARE EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO CLEAR THU MORNING BRINGING POPS TO
AN END.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GFS IS SUGGESTING NW FLOW THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO BIG COUNTRY
FRI/SAT...BUT EXPECT LOW POPS TO CONTINUE WITH LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.  JET STREAK MAY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
PLAINS SUN/MON WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY ON MON.  AGAIN...WILL LEAVE OUT POPS AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE SLOW AND MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  NEXT
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SWINGS INTO N TX WED MORNING.  MAY HAVE SOME POPS DEPENDING
UPON MOISTURE RETURN.  MODELS NOT HINTING AT ANY POPS NOW...BUT
WILL WATCH HOW THE MODEL EVOLVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     43  69  46  80 /  50  10   0   0
SAN ANGELO  46  68  45  83 /  50  10   0   0
JUNCTION    48  71  41  83 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

15/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-141930-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
129 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SILVER TO
WINTERS TO BROWNWOOD...OR GENERALLY...SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

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