Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...GEARING UP FOR A RATHER BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SPEED MAX CURRENTLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BEGINNING TO ENTER
FAR WEST TEXAS...WILL HELP TO ACTIVATE THE DRYLINE TODAY. WITH A
MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE THAN LAST EVENING...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILE AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FEW HIGH END EVENTS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
JET TO HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

STRONGER CAP ON SUNDAY AND LACK OF ANY SHORT WAVE WILL BE TOUGH FOR
THE DRYLINE TO POP A STORM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM
RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND WILL SHOW THIS IN THE FORECAST. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WILL HELP TO WARM DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...STILL TRACKING LOW PRESSURE FEATURE THAT IS NOW
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND ETA NOW BOTH SHOW
THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS THEN
LINGER THIS FEATURE AROUND CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
UNFAVORABLE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...IT IS STILL WORTHY OF A
LOW POP MENTION AND WILL SLIDE THE MENTION BACK TO THE WEST A
LITTLE. THERE WILL BE HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS
ONCE AGAIN IF THE FORECAST IS CORRECT. WHERE EXACTLY WILL HAVE TO
BE DETERMINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     71  93  73  95 /  70  10  10   0
SAN ANGELO  73  96  72  97 /  50  10  10   0
JUNCTION    73  93  72  95 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27/BRAZZELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-131930-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A ROBY...ANSON...TO ALBANY LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY...HEARTLAND...AND EASTERN BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.