Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A HETEROGENEOUS AIRMASS OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AT MID AFTERNOON.
DRY DESERT AIR HAD EDGED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 AND DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE 20S NORTHWEST OF SAN
ANGELO. OVER THE EASTERN HEARTLAND...A MODIFIED TROPICAL MARITIME
AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAD BACKED NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW WEST OF BIG SPRING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND CLOSELY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WILL FINALLY RETREAT WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST ATTENTION
WILL SHIFT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
INTERSTATE 20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z MESOETA PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE TO NEAR 3500 J/KG NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CAP TO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ETA AND AVN SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY
LATE EVENING AND MAY BE OVERDONE ON QPF. NONETHELESS...MAV GUIDANCE
MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS APPEAR REASONABLE...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
850 MB FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES MAY DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MESOETA PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH ZERO CINH OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP FROM SAN ANGELO NORTH
AND EAST. AS SAID...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE.

DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
WITH RIDGING ALOFT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STALLS THE FEATURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. SOME MIDLEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
HINTED AT BY MIDWEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST BEYOND DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     73  95  69  91 /  10  20  40  20
SAN ANGELO  73 101  72  94 /  10  10  20  10
JUNCTION    72 100  71  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

14

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