Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...INTERESTING DRYLINE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. AT 1
PM...IT WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
IS ACTUALLY BECOMING MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AS PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. SITUATION SEEMS TO BE MORE MURKY FOR
TONIGHT THAN IT APPEARED TO BE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. VIGOROUS WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ON THE RADAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY. CAP HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO COMPETING THUNDERSTORMS...NOW
THINKING THAT THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOUTH AND WEST
WHERE CAP IS STRONGER THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT. STILL NOT QUITE CLEAR HOW EVERYTHING WILL EVOLVE BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN. WINDS WILL GO WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT
AND THINGS WILL DRY OUT. THINKING HERE IS THAT DRYLINE WILL GET
A GOOD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSE WARMING CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE DRYLINE THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOSHES BACK AND FORTH...
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR A WHILE BEFORE GOING NORTHWESTERLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WAVES COME DOWN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     65  93  71  93 /  50  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO  65  96  71  96 /  40  10  10  10
JUNCTION    68  94  72  94 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
224 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-281923-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
224 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST OF A SAN SABA TO
JUNCTION LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             CHAMPION                32.36N 100.62W
05/27/2004  1.75 INCH        NOLAN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAMPION                32.36N 100.62W
05/27/2004                   NOLAN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED

&&

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TORNADO          3 SW SWEETWATER         32.44N 100.44W
05/27/2004                   NOLAN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

08

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