Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 270413
FFSSJT
TXC105-435-270515-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT FOR SUTTON AND 
CROCKETT COUNTIES...

AT 1105 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. 

ALTHOUGH NO ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...RURAL ROADWAYS AND 
LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY BE FLOODED. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3032 10158 3033 10021 3064 10021 3065 10103
      3101 10103 3102 10169

$$

09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
836 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

.UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR ELP
WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX.
KSJT WSR-88D CONTINUES TO DETECT A BAND OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. ALSO...ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER
RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF EL PASO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GOES VISIBLE
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD THIS FEATURE...
FROM FAR WEST TX...INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE UPPER
TROF WAS TAPPING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. A LOW
LEVEL AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR EXTENDED FROM THE TRANS PECOS...INTO
EASTERN NM. A COLD POOL ALOFT WAS NOTED BY -14C TEMPS ON THE 12Z ELP
SOUNDING AND A MID LEVEL JET MAX WAS ROUNDING THE LOWER WEST SIDE OF
THE TROF AT 12Z.

THE GFS AND ETA MODELS PROG THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...AROUND 150 MILES AT MOST. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...WILL PLAN ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN ANGELO. EXPECT A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT OF
RAINFALL OVER WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN IN THE DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL TX.

THE GFS FILLS THE UPPER LOW SOME DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY EARLY IN THE DAY. WILL THUS LET
THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS EXTEND AS
NECESSARY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN THE
BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. LOW LEVEL INFLOW MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TONIGHT AND RAINFALL MAY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE UPPER LOW
CENTER.

ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE
OF THE EXITING AND WEAKENING UPPER TROF. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BETTER DYNAMICS LIKELY TO BASS OFF TO
THE NORTH...THOUGH THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT SOLD ON THE EARLY SATURDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS PROGGED BY THE GFSLR...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM FOR
IRION...SCHLEICHER...CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUNTIES.

&&

21/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-271930-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
245 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM MERTZON TO FORT MCCAVETT. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
OZONA...SONORA AND ELDORADO.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.