Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 191403
FFSSJT
TXC049-191645-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
902 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 
1145 AM CDT...

AT 844 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS FALLEN OVER LAKE BROWNWOOD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY 
SINCE 5 AM...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED 
BY 1145 AM CDT. 

CREEKS AND STREAMS NORTH OF LAKE BROWNWOOD...INCLUDING PECAN BAYOU 
...HOLLOWAY CREEK...LOST CREEK...AND JIM NED CREEK...ARE LIKELY 
FILLED WITH SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW 
LYING AREAS WILL BECOME FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. THESE FLOOD WATERS 
WILL FLOW INTO LAKE BROWNWOOD...WITH A RISE OF THE LAKE LEVELS 
EXPECTED. 

MOTORISTS ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY ARE URGED TO PROCEED WITH 
CAUTION. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD FATALITIES OCCUR IN VEHICLES. TURN 
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

$$

07

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 191524
FFSSJT
TXC049-191645-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1024 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 
1145 AM CDT...

AT 1011 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE 
DROPPED 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF BROWN COUNTY SINCE 
5 AM...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING IN A STRETCH FROM JUST NORTH 
OF LAKE BROWNWOOD TO NEAR MAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY THROUGH 1145 AM...PRODUCING 
ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND 
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG PECAN BAYOU AND 
HOG CREEK NORTH OF LAKE BROWNWOOD WILL LIKELY BECOME FLOODED AND 
IMPASSABLE. 

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT.

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
333 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU...EXPERIENCED A DECENT RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THIS MORNING. THE EVENT BEGAN WHEN A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF THAT INTERACTED WITH RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.

AT 08Z...KSJT RADAR INDICATED AN MCS EAST OF A SAN ANGELO TO
SWEETWATER LINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. THERE APPEARED TO
BE A WEAK MESOSCALE VORTICITY MAX OVER SAN SABA COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FROM THE TRANS-PECOS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHICH COMPLICATES
THE OUTER PERIOD FORECASTS IN PARTICULAR.

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ...SHEARED EAST SOME BY A UPPER JET MAX CUTTING ACROSS
CENTRAL BAJA. FURTHER EAST OVER NM...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
ANY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED ONCE THE MCS
LIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY DRIVER FOR RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING DURING THE
EVENING.

A WEAK FRONT THAT HAD ENTERED THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SAG INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THE GFS MODEL
PROGS A SHORTWAVE TROF TO DIVE INTO THE THE TX PANHANDLE LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL PLAN
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT..WITH LOWER POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO NEXT WEEK/S UPPER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM OF TX. THE UPPER TROF THAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY TO DROP
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MIDWEEK IS NOW PROGGED TO CUT-OFF AND
MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS
FOR WEST CENTRAL TX WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEW SOLUTION
RESULTING IN A MORE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER NM AND WEST TX...
RATHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FLOW OVER TX FROM YESTERDAY/S GFS
RUN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MORE IN LINE
WITH YESTERDAY/S GFS RUN. WILL TRIM WHAT WERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NEXT WEEK...AND WARM TEMPS SLIGHTLY...THROUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE     87  69  88  67 /  40  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  91  71  92  69 /  30  10  20  20
JUNCTION    91  72  93  70 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
541 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-201040-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
541 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...ONE OR TWO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.