Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT THU APR 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
VORTICITY MAX MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA HAS PRODUCED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA.  THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TYR AND GGG
LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SHV UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EAST TEXAS.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE...AS THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY...BUT HEATING
COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AS RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH.  ACROSS EAST TEXAS...RAIN SHOULD END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP.

WILL ALSO UPDATE TO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE TXK AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  65  81  65 /  60  10  20  20
MLU  77  64  81  65 /  30  10  20  20
TXK  70  65  81  65 /  70  20  20  20
TYR  76  66  80  66 /  30   0  20  30
LFK  78  66  82  66 /  20   0  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COULD ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW OF THESE STORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.  SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.