Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
605 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...

ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO ADD SVR WATCH TO SE OK/ALL BUT UNION COUNTY
IN SW AR...MUCH OF E TX...AND EXTREME NW LA UNTIL 5Z. SQUALL LINE
JUST A COUNTY WEST OF THE CWA ATTM...RACING E BETWEEN 40-45 KTS. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST LOCALLY ARE THE VERY GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KTS
WHICH HAVE OCCURRED IN THE SHV/BOSSIER AREAS THE LAST HOUR OR
SO...ASSOCIATED WITH 3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE.  ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DID UP WINDS A BIT
FOR E TX/W LA AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR THE NW
ZONES AS CONVECTION IS MOVING/DEVELOPING ALREADY IN THESE AREAS.

15

&&

.UPDATED PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  68  42  64 / 100   0   0  10
MLU  57  69  43  64 / 100  10   0   0
DEQ  45  65  35  62 / 100   0   0   0
TXK  51  67  40  62 /  80   0   0  10
ELD  54  67  40  62 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  49  67  42  64 /  80   0   0  20
GGG  51  67  42  64 /  80   0   0  20
LFK  54  69  43  66 /  80   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE BIG BEND REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEABREEZE WILL SLOWLY NUDGE NORTHEAST INTO DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WELL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA...SENDING A SQUALL LINE
RACING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST IN ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS...WHERE GROUNDS
ARE ALREADY SATURATED. THUS...MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN CONNECTION WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA.