Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT MON JUN  7 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THE CURRENT AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA...HOWEVER STORMS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE
EAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH NORTHWARD...HOWEVER MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF A NATCHITOCHES LA...MAGNOLIA
AR LINE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AS IT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.  A
DECENT CAP WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...
THUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SO FOR THE FORECAST
WILL STAY WITH CURRENT TREND...OF HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST AND LOWER
IN THE EAST.  I AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF FLOOD
WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST THIS PERIOD.

MAV AND FWC AGREE ON MINS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON
MAXES TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.  MAV IS THROWING OFF HIGHER
POPS...WITH CORRESPONDING LOWER MAX TEMPS...WHILE FWC CONTINUES WITH
NEAR NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY.  SO WILL TAKE A BALANCE ON MAX TEMPS...AS
WE SHOULD AT LEAST HEAT UP INTO THE MID 80S...WITH RAIN NOT
AFFECTING TEMPS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

ELEVEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  87  72  87 /  30  50  40  50
MLU  70  89  71  88 /  20  30  20  30
TXK  72  86  71  85 /  20  50  40  50
TYR  73  83  73  85 /  30  60  50  50
LFK  71  85  72  87 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH LOUISIANA. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GENERALLY WET UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EXIST AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. DUE TO
PREVIOUS RAINFALL INCREASING GROUND MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

03