Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS SLOWLY MOVING
OVER E TX AND W LA AND COMBINING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND WEAK SEA BREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS.
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE SHORT WAVE BECOMES A CLOSED LOW
AND SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AN UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
FROM MEXICO AND SW TX. THE LOW ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AFTERNOON HEATING...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL AROUND...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COOLER THAN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT HAVE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER SUN. AFTER MID WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER HEAD...THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER TO BELOW CLIMO NORMALS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND APPROACH 90.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  86  68  87 /  30  30  20  20
MLU  66  83  66  86 /  50  50  30  30
TXK  65  86  67  87 /  20  10  10   0
TYR  67  87  69  87 /  20  10  20  20
LFK  67  87  69  87 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-181100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
AS ONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
PREVIOUS ACTIVITY...AND SEABREEZE MOVING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE REGION...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN EL DORADO TO
SHREVEPORT...AND LUFKIN LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE...
AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR THREE INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND INTERACTS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FROM THE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.

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