Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
930 PM PST MON FEB 2 2004

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD BRING MORE COOLING AND SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT RAIN BEGAN IN THE WRN ZONES THIS EVE AND MODERATE
RAIN WAS MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES. SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SBD
MOUNTAINS AT THE 6000 FOOT LEVEL AND ICE PELLETS INTO THE CAJON PASS.
UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SRN DESERTS.

THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING WAS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT DID SHOW MODERATELY STRONG WSW WINDS ALOFT.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND TRENDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NE.

EXPECT A RELATIVELY BRIEF...TWO TO THREE HOUR PERIOD...OF HEAVY PRECIP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AROUND
10 PM AND THE SRN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR WITH THE FRONT. THE CONTINUOUS
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY MORNING. CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS
LOOK OK. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH WE GET WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL
BAND. NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING ON BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TUE. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MOVE PAST TO
OUR NE BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUE EVE...MAINLY IN WRN SAN COUNTY FROM
ISLAND EFFECTS. DRIER NW FLOW WED AND THU WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THU
FOR DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER. INCREASING SURF LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE.

.LONG TERM...RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE FRI FOR CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.
A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES PAST TO THE N SAT FOR MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING.
THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP SAT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF WEAK RIDING SUN AND MON FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW TOWARD TUE COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS...
COOLING AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING...LAXWSWSGX.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...LAXFLSSGX.
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...LAXMWSSGX.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

ATKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST MON FEB 2 2004

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-031400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
600 AM PST MON FEB 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS BELOW 4000 FEET.

REFER TO LAXFLSSGX WGUS86 KSGX FOR DETAILS.

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 4000 FEET FROM 600 PM TONIGHT THROUGH
600 PM TUESDAY FOR
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-

REFER TO LAXWSWSGX WWUS46 KSGX FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
TUESDAY.

POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND/OR STRONG WINDS...
FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
TUESDAY.

LARGE SWELLS...
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...
POSSIBLE HIGH SURF...
POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW...
FOR COASTAL WATERS-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

BALFOUR/MM